Modelling Complex Planning Processes in Supply Chains

TitleModelling Complex Planning Processes in Supply Chains
Publication TypeConference Paper
Year of Publication2015
AuthorsWallner, M, Brunner, U, Zsifkovits, H
EditorBlecker, T, Kersten, W, Ringle, CM
Title of ProceedingsOperational Excellence in Logistics and Supply Chains
Conference LocationHamburg
ISBN Number978-3-7375-4056-8
Other NumbersISSN (print) 2365-4430, ISSN (online) 2365-5070
KeywordsComplexity Management, Demand Planning, Supply Chain Management, Visualizing Complexity

Demand planning has become a key issue for the performance of supply chains.
However, the right quantity is dependent on many factors. Besides market influences,
like changing demands, there are also inner-company variables such as the
availability of resources. Decision makers often lack a clear picture of what influences
their decisions and perceive a state of complexity.
There are several theoretical models for managing complexity, but they are not designed
to identify the complexity in demand planning. The aim of this paper is to establish
a methodology for visualizing and reducing the complexity in the demand
planning process.
The first result is a model for visualizing the complexity in the planning process. The
model shows the factors which influence planned quantities in a chronological order,
and, makes cause-effect relations regarding time, responsibility and system
support visible.
The second result is a structured compilation of methods and tools to actively influence
the complexity in the demand planning process. The identified approaches are
either assigned to complexity design – reducing complexity by simplifying the supply
chain – or complexity control – reducing complexity by decreasing the uncertainty in