Future Problems in Logistics Due to Demographic Change

TitleFuture Problems in Logistics Due to Demographic Change
Publication TypeConference Paper
Year of Publication2014
AuthorsKlumpp, M, Bioly, S, Witte, C
EditorKersten, W, Blecker, T, Ringle, CM
Title of ProceedingsNext Generation Supply Chains
Conference LocationHamburg
ISBN Number978-3-8442-9879-6; 978-3-7375-0340-2
ISSN NumberISSN (print) 2365-4430, ISSN (online) 2365-5070
Keywordsdemographic change, road transport wage simulation, transport mode prognosis, transport volume simulation

This research paper describes the impact of demographic change on the
transport and logistics sector. Therefore, besides a literature review and a
management option discussion in the end, the paper contains the following two
main sections and methods: First an empirical report of a 2014 survey
conducted in the research project “DO.WERT” regarding the working conditions
of truck drivers in Germany (working hours, wages, motivation, qualification;
n=483). Second, an optimization prognosis (GAMS conceptualization) for the
German truck driver labor market in 2030 including increased traffic volumes,
restricted carbon dioxide emissions as well as a market-based wage cost
function draft. Existing research has shown that major disruptions in the
“triangle” of increasing traffic volumes, decreasing populations and also
politically intended decreases in carbon dioxide emissions have to be expected,
for example for logistics wage and also freight rates markets.